UA 278 · YYZ → ORD

departs 5:26 PM EDT · arrives 6:33 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

79% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
20%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
24%
Over 2 hours late
18%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

ORD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.76 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 278 · YYZ → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?