UA 2797 · SMF → ORD

departs 2:25 PM PT · arrives 8:38 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

69% chance · ±2 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2797 · SMF → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?