UA 2799 · IND → SFO

departs 7:59 PM ET · arrives 9:47 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

43% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 57% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IND (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2799 · IND → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?