UA 2811 · ORD → LAS

departs 9:42 AM CT · arrives 11:44 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.87 in

LAS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2811 · ORD → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?