UA 2824 · SFO → PHL

departs 8:56 AM PT · arrives 5:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2824 · SFO → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?