Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2837 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Yesterday

UA 2837 · SFO → IAD

departs 10:35 PM PT · arrives 6:58 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +21 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
34%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2837 · SFO → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?