Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2854 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

UA 2854 · BUR → SFO

departs 8:22 PM PT · arrives 9:50 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 44% of the time recently

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR

Weather at each end

BUR (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2854 · BUR → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?