UA 2860 · YYZ → ORD

departs 11:00 AM EDT · arrives 11:48 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±3 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Other factors

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

ORD (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.93 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2860 · YYZ → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?