UA 2861 · IAD → MCO

departs 3:48 PM ET · arrives 6:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2861 · IAD → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?