UA 2864 · GSP → DEN

departs 4:25 PM ET · arrives 5:45 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

GSP (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2864 · GSP → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?