Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 307 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

UA 307 · ORD → JAC

departs 9:05 AM CT · arrives 11:35 AM MT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at JAC more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±5 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAC?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAC

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.11 in

JAC (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 307 · ORD → JAC

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAC?