UA 308 · PHL → ORD

departs 5:00 PM ET · arrives 6:33 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±1 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
18%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PHL that day

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.74 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 308 · PHL → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?