UA 318 · ORD → DEN

departs 8:40 AM CT · arrives 10:21 AM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts −19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

DEN (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 318 · ORD → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?