UA 376 · AUS → IAD

departs 5:00 PM CT · arrives 9:19 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

55% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
30%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,033 ft, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ 5pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 12% of the time recently

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility7 mi Precip1.40 in

IAD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 376 · AUS → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?