UA 392 · TPA → EWR

departs 7:13 PM ET · arrives 10:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±1 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.57 in

EWR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 392 · TPA → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?