UA 411 · EWR → MCO

departs 7:54 AM ET · arrives 10:58 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 411 · EWR → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?