UA 413 · ABQ → IAD

departs 6:12 AM MT · arrives 12:06 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from ABQ are usually not late

Weather at each end

ABQ (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 413 · ABQ → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?