Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 413 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

UA 413 · MCO → IAD

departs 4:45 PM ET · arrives 7:08 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

IAD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 413 · MCO → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?