UA 451 · ORD → CMH

departs 7:23 AM CT · arrives 9:54 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CMH?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ CMH usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.76 in

CMH (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 451 · ORD → CMH

Odds over time

How late will it get to CMH?