UA 463 · ORD → FLL

departs 5:45 PM CT · arrives 9:51 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

83% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to FLL?

On time or early
16%
15–30 min late
31%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

FLL (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip2.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 463 · ORD → FLL

Odds over time

How late will it get to FLL?