UA 464 · EWR → RDU

departs 3:23 PM ET · arrives 5:07 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 464 · EWR → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?