UA 466 · ORD → DSM

departs 9:00 AM CT · arrives 10:22 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DSM that day

↓ Arrivals into DSM at that hour are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.81 in

DSM (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.38 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 466 · ORD → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?