UA 477 · LGA → ORD

departs 9:12 AM ET · arrives 10:43 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±7 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 477 · LGA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?