UA 484 · LAS → DEN

departs 3:16 PM PT · arrives 6:28 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 484 · LAS → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?