Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 500 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

UA 500 · SFO → PHX

departs 10:05 AM PT · arrives 12:14 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±3 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 500 · SFO → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?