UA 504 · BWI → SFO

departs 6:59 PM ET · arrives 9:50 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 504 · BWI → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?