UA 517 · SFO → EWR

departs 6:09 AM PT · arrives 3:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from SFO are usually not late

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 517 · SFO → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?