Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 520 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

UA 520 · SFO → MCO

departs 2:00 PM PT · arrives 10:36 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 520 · SFO → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?