UA 541 · STL → ORD

departs 5:33 PM CT · arrives 7:00 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

84% chance · ±13 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
16%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
32%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
20%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 367 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling367 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.33 in

ORD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.87 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 541 · STL → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?