Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 548 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Yesterday

UA 548 · SFO → MFR

departs 9:24 PM PT · arrives 10:59 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?

55% chance · ±0 pts +22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MFR?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
32%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MFR

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

MFR (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 548 · SFO → MFR

Odds over time

How late will it get to MFR?