UA 561 · MCI → SFO

departs 5:35 PM CT · arrives 7:32 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from MCI are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.62 in

SFO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 561 · MCI → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?