UA 569 · EWR → BQN

departs 7:08 PM ET · arrives 11:09 PM AT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at BQN more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BQN?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BQN (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 569 · EWR → BQN

Odds over time

How late will it get to BQN?