UA 573 · STL → SFO

departs 7:13 AM CT · arrives 9:50 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2.66667 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 7am departures from STL are usually not late

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2.66667 mi Precip0.58 in

SFO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 573 · STL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?