UA 577 · STL → EWR

departs 7:23 AM CT · arrives 10:56 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2.66667 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 7am departures from STL are usually not late

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility4.33333 mi Precip0.36 in

EWR (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 577 · STL → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?