Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 598 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

UA 598 · DEN → LGA

departs 11:30 AM MT · arrives 5:24 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±5 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ UA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.17 in

LGA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 598 · DEN → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?