Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 599 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

UA 599 · IAD → DEN

departs 5:41 PM ET · arrives 7:45 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±7 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 599 · IAD → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?