Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 611 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

UA 611 · SFO → LAS

departs 10:42 AM PT · arrives 12:28 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 611 · SFO → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?