Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 623 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Today

UA 623 · ORD → BZN

departs 12:45 PM CT · arrives 3:13 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BZN?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BZN

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.86 in

BZN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling10,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 623 · ORD → BZN

Odds over time

How late will it get to BZN?