Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 638 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Yesterday

UA 638 · SFO → HNL

departs 7:00 PM PT · arrives 9:43 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.61 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 638 · SFO → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?