UA 645 · DEN → FSD

departs 5:28 PM MT · arrives 8:08 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?

43% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FSD?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FSD (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 645 · DEN → FSD

Odds over time

How late will it get to FSD?