UA 685 · AUS → IAH

departs 4:23 PM CT · arrives 5:45 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

87% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
13%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
26%
Over 2 hours late
17%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,033 ft, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ 4pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precip1.25 in

IAH (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 685 · AUS → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?