UA 795 · ORD → TYS

departs 6:03 PM CT · arrives 8:45 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?

69% chance · ±1 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TYS?

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
28%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ TYS usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.81 in

TYS (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 795 · ORD → TYS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TYS?