UA 822 · MEX → SFO

departs 5:00 AM CST · arrives 8:40 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
8%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX

↓ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MEX (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

SFO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 822 · MEX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?