Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 870 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Thursday, October 1

UA 870 · SYD → SFO

departs 10:36 AM AEDT · arrives 6:55 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 25h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Other factors

↓ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SYD (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

SFO (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 870 · SYD → SFO

Odds over time