WN 1104 · SMF → PSP

departs 8:16 AM PT · arrives 9:54 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at PSP more than 15 minutes late?

5% chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PSP?

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PSP is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PSP

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

PSP (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1104 · SMF → PSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to PSP?