WN 1152 · BWI → SAT

departs 1:56 PM ET · arrives 4:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ 1pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip3.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1152 · BWI → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?