WN 1167 · BWI → SRQ

departs 2:06 PM ET · arrives 4:39 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SRQ?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SRQ that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from BWI are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↓ SRQ usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

SRQ (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1167 · BWI → SRQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to SRQ?