WN 116 · ABQ → AUS

departs 3:06 PM MT · arrives 6:02 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ AUS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ABQ (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling10,714 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.67 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 116 · ABQ → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?