WN 1170 · OAK → LGB

departs 2:31 PM PT · arrives 4:01 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGB?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from OAK are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi forecast at OAK that day

↓ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precipnone

LGB (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1170 · OAK → LGB

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGB?