WN 1188 · SAT → MCO

departs 1:06 PM CT · arrives 4:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip2.08 in

MCO (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1188 · SAT → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?